One year after the Russia-Ukraine war erupted, US gas prices have continued to be surprisingly low. Prices shot up to a historic high of $5.02 just after the full-scale invasion began in June 2022, but it didn’t take long for them to fall back down. With an average price of $3.39 per gallon as of this Friday, the anniversary of the start of the war, Americans are paying much less than anticipated.

To understand why, we must look at the reactions of the global markets and the strategies on either side. Global commodity markets reacted to the war by raising prices, expecting the need for an alternative to Russian oil. Despite the US and its allies imposing sanctions on Russia, oil shipments to China, India and Turkey continued, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve eventually released its stockpiles.

It can also be considered why Vladimir Putin delayed his actions to invade Ukraine until 2014.