March 31, 2023

As the possibility of an indictment in New York looms over former President Donald Trump, his supporters remain unwavering, with recent polls showing him with a growing lead over potential GOP primary opponents. Despite facing multiple legal challenges, Trump has continued to rally his base by portraying himself as a victim of political persecution aimed at his MAGA movement. He has encouraged his supporters to "protest, take our nation back" if he is indicted, raising concerns about potential unrest. However, it remains to be seen whether an indictment would hurt or help Trump's chances in the 2024 GOP primary.

In the past, Trump has used investigations into his business, personal, and political activities to stir a defensive sentiment among his die-hard supporters. His supporters viewed investigations into his alleged collusion with Russia and two impeachment inquiries as part of a partisan "witch hunt." Trump has used a similar tactic in the lead-up to a possible indictment in Manhattan, with some of his critics questioning the wisdom of the case. Despite Trump's legal troubles extending to three other investigations, he has managed to maintain his lead over potential primary opponents, including Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina.