Will Russia's plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus escalate the conflict in Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced over the weekend that he had reached an agreement with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This move has since been condemned by NATO and the EU, with the latter warning of sanctions against Minsk. In Ukraine, fighting continues with one Ukrainian official describing the destruction in Avdiivka as post-apocalyptic. Utility workers were evacuated from the town as the fighting intensified over the weekend.

While Putin's move to station nuclear weapons in Belarus has been viewed as an attempt to raise the pressure on Kyiv's Western allies, experts see little prospect of the move changing the course of the conflict. Governments and analysts remain uncertain of the extent of the Kremlin's plan. Furthermore, it is unclear how the weapons would be delivered if the order to use them ever came. Despite the heightened tension, the White House has stated that the US sees no reason to change its strategic stance, asserting its commitment to the collective defense of NATO. As the conflict continues, the international community remains concerned over the potential ramifications of Putin's latest move.

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