The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States has been making waves in the clean energy industry since its implementation in August 2022. With provisions such as $783 billion in subsidies and financial support for clean energy, the IRA has disrupted the market and attracted manufacturers from countries like China and India. It has been hailed as the "single most important climate action" by experts in the field. However, with the upcoming US election and the possibility of a second Trump presidency, there are concerns about the future of the IRA.

According to Australian business figures, the IRA is expected to survive a second Trump administration due to the massive investment and jobs it has generated, especially in Republican states. The IRA has attracted nearly $337 billion in clean energy project investment in these states, with Texas alone securing $67 billion. Despite Trump's expressed scepticism towards electric vehicles, the spending on clean energy projects in his own backyard and the importance of domestic supply security may outweigh any potential challenges to the IRA.

While there is concern about the future of the IRA under a second Trump presidency, experts argue that the transition towards clean energy in Europe will help keep the act intact. The positive impact of the IRA, such as the inflow of capital and the US catching up to Europe in the energy transition, may be too significant to be completely undone. Overall, the impact of a Trump presidency on the IRA may be limited in the near term, as market forces and industry innovation have a greater influence on oil production than presidential policies. However, in the long term, a Republican president's oil policies could shape future industry developments.